The Gauntlet
Last manager standing wins $400. One team out every week through Week 13.
All 14 teams start alive. Each week, the lowest weekly scorer among survivors is eliminated — one team out per week through Week 13, until a single survivor remains.
Forecast model: 40% season PPG + 60% last-3-week form, then nudged by remaining opponent strength (10% of the opponent's deviation from league average). The simulation walks week-by-week, eliminating the weakest opponent-adjusted score each round until one team remains.
Tiebreakers
If two or more living teams tie for the lowest weekly score, elimination is decided in this order:
- The team with the lower total season points-for (through that week) is eliminated.
- If still tied, the team whose single lowest-scoring starter scored the fewest points that week is eliminated.
- If still tied, compare the next-lowest starter, and so on down the lineup until the tie breaks.
Only one team is eliminated per week.
Per Article 9 of the Constitution, which governs in any conflict.
Projected vs Actual Eliminations
Per-week: the team the model forecasted to fall vs the team actually eliminated, plus the form and opponent-strength inputs behind each call.
Cumulative accuracy trend
Dashed line = overall 33%Factor breakdown
| Projected → Actual | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1Miss | Catholiclaxbeast69→Leonardo | -4.8 | — | -48.3 | -71.8 |
| Wk 2Miss | PEACEFUL PROTESTS →Guillermos Burner | -63.3 | +66.1 | +27.6 | -78.4 |
| Wk 4Miss | ffbscoop→Catholiclaxbeast69 | -5.2 | +2.6 | -25.7 | -26.8 |
| Wk 6Miss | The Driving Crooners→ffbscoop | -11.8 | +26.1 | +7.9 | -55.9 |
Gaps are actual − projected (or projected − actual for expected score, so a positive expected gap means the model thought the actual eliminee would outscore the projected one). Surprise is the actual eliminee's points minus the model's expected score — large negatives mean a collapse the model didn't see coming.
Last updated 10/27/2026, 6:16:46 PM · Data via Sleeper.